Monday, October 21, 2013

The biggest fire risk ever

This is the theme of many observers of the fires in NSW this week, but they are wrong ; Worse, they are misreporting the risk as stated by the Authorities wanting them to state the above when they don't want to put it that way - read the reports of these fires in six months time if you doubt my assertion TODAY

It is apparently true that a 300 km fire front "could develop" but too easy to push the facts - unlikely according that such a front would happen . Impossible if you know the hills , the moisture content , the wind changes and the weather changes and night come on changes to limit combustion  and edge and spot over requirement.
The service at least knows the limits imposed on any disaster by those complexities and certainties;The service is not in a panic . Yet they are reported ( sort of) to be !
The less you know the more you are prone to fear - helps explain why the media are in a panic at the moment (21 October 2013).
The reason they should shut up and listen to the ordered evacuation and other info from controllers ( not there own reporters) is simply that emergencies like this require orderly evacuation by those who know both site variations ,timing and the many risk factors operating hour to hour, day to day .

If it was a fire in a theatre, the media could easily have instigated irrational action if not mass manic and more deaths than necessary.
The people most at risk are also those who chose not to protect themselves ,,so how can we help them . The reality is that people who show no common sense (Fire authorities call for 30 metre clearance around houses to protect them and have always done that )have to be dragged kicking and screaming directly - generalized messages only exaggerate the danger of cry wolf  .