If you want nature to rule, go hide in the cupboard

 

If you want nature to rule, go hide in the cupboard because the wolf is going to get you one night when you and your gods are not looking; when you think you are safely in the arms of things that require understanding before you can really trust or work with them. 

Helicopter parenting and helicopter grandparenting are not the most efficient way to address the reality of huge risk in the environment. Proper local understanding and action is the efficient driver of sound protection and really effective  risk management.  Inane unhelpful and misdirected worry and chatter should be avoided at all costs. 

The helicopters were busy in our neck of the woods this week. FIRE and FLOODS

They rescued wrecked cars from the beach. The cars were dead, but people could have died too because  the warnings came too late to get people out of the flood area . 
The rescuers and the people were not given enough close and specific information about the impending danger.

 

We have known for 30 years that the return period for such events in rivers in the eastern Otways is less than 20 years. Any geomorphologist, or wise child, might even note the huge power that moves the obvious boulders which form the base of these streams. Proper integrated planning of soils, water and geomorphic processes confirmed the risk well over 30 years ago. Read the reports listed below. 

 

As long ago as 1983 it was known by those of us who studied and planned water structures in the Region that south easterlies, which predictably blow for days can be expected to generate large dumps of rain on the eastern end of the Otways because of the process of orographic up lift of those high humidity clouds. The process by which these unusual events happen go beyond the simple evaluation that only focuses on the amount of rain clouds can release in various climatic conditions ( the oft mentioned 120 mm ) and what has happened in rainfall recorders (of which there are only a few ) ,

As described in the links below, there is no excuse for the emergency authorities to not know and  understand this process and be expecting floods when the easterlies were blowing consistently for many long hours before the midday events in Lorne. 

Understanding where we are. 

The reason the emergency authorities are not anticipating danger is often a result of a disease they inherit from those who have tried to run the government and the environment remotely for decades.  Let me call this a version of a disease you may be familiar with; 

Helicopter parenting 

Where parents avoid confrontation with the real risks of earth.

The participants ( child and parent )  learn nothing but to panic and spend money in anticipation of unknown risks they would know if they properly engaged with the earth.


Helicopter grand parenting of the Environment   This modern phenomenon is much , much worse than the above because it really doesn't know the risks and how the various components of the ecosystem soil water and climate work together. 

When nature strikes in the backyard of remote managers , they would be better to hide in a cupboard. The wolf is real, but you must understand the wolf and his brilliant space us habits to be safe from the wolf.   
. 
to be continued . 

https://swearthnews.blogspot.com/2022/01/easterlies-have-major-role-in-shaping.html

https://designwithnature.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-biggest-threat-ever.html

You don't want to be mauled, so fight the beast off before it gets close to you and wins the war .

The Wolf wins by talking to humans in tones sweet and tuneful, pretending he is even your friend. Narcissists and politicians use the same technique to get humans to listen to them.
But do modern humans even know this?  
The beast knows the best way to win the war is to get close to you. The beast does not threaten you with knives anger and things you can see, but things you can't see. This subtle beast knows you better than you know yourself. The wolf knows your fears ( like guilt) and He is the first to face them and use them against you.  
The beast knows that you might be focused on the arms race, whereas he knows the way to win the war is for him to play harmless and inflate your pride and your self -righteousness in particular. To con you before he gets his claws into you. To sap your energy and resources, in subtle ways, before he strikes.  

We are rich, live on an island, and fancy ourselves as some of most fair-minded people in the world; . This feeblemindedness, based as it is on a simple self-righteous feeding game where we the threatened, agree that we are all good blokes, is no doubt what Mr Chamberlain represented when he left his country naked for war in 1945.

Which flag should we follow?

We all like to think we are safe but still moving -it doesn't make sense but that is the centre of the lost man's mind; We all know there is a wolf about ,but only those who study consistently and who train make their bodies to walk well, honestly and openly will get somewhere. That group may be in minority.

Being comforted when you are really confused is not going to work long term ,but it feels good for the moment . The public mind in 2025 is a mess. Lots of children who have never grown up, are in charge.These immature ones may have confidence, but its confidence misplaced. In Public life , sound logic is missing and true paradox in the sound bites is alive and well as GK Chesterton was fond of putting it . We no longer care that we are rational as much as we care to be comforted by our own rationale. It doesn't matter which side of politics you are on. The one remaining problem as Jung and the 66 plus testimonies spell out is "man himself"; A fearful but hopeful creature who his unable to be objective and active in repentance about his wayward and wasteful ways.

The challenge for us down to earth conservatives ( or should I say bridge and foundation builders) is to sell the idea that moving slowly and more deliberately works when panic and movement seems necessary to many; many who continue to listen to the voices of a cheap and easy way to build the sustainable. The way the feebleminded start is how they finish; every crashing down episode; their very own lifestyle choice that, in a short term way works for them; they are "saved" by the quick escape so when their time comes they can be expected to anticipate "a narrow escape' based on "moving on" from memory. Someone will pay for all the quick fix movements the incompetent make.  The rule of the universe and ecology is generally short term gain, long term pain. We must remind ourselves that an age which chooses promiscuity in thought and action will become confused and unreliable in its talk, just as the promiscuous always do - when any one of us choose to say one thing and do another, There is a way of security but it's harder and slower; Our children can confidently place their shoes on steeper and slower path. This is NOT the path of so many; the maladaptive childish way of learning to get what you want or think you need. We live in an age which knows a lot about the real value of sound science, The promiscuous however, do not allow themselves to operate under its constraints and therefore their learning experience is empty ; they build nothing and remain at risk of always continuing in two minds; of being feebleminded. In their relative ignorance of both Science reason and the need for real personal restraint, they have more reason to fear than those who don't just talk of resilience, but know it in practice. All of us need from time to time to exercise both intellectual and physiological restraint in our bodies or our minds. Otherwise we will be more easily confused by both end arguments, The testimony of a resilient argument is one that produces a peaceful and productive lifestyle long term- not achieved as should be obvious to anyone who dares switch the media off ( a great idea) The media flag is everchanging -- is it not ? new products new solutions.
The reason there is so much comfort talk in September 2025 of being "in the centre" is simply because most of our citizens don't know where the centre of balance really is. The fearful know that being" in the centre" is safe so they love talk like that, but because they don't really know where the centre is ( the science is extremely complex) It doesn't seem to matter to many that the calm talk of us changing the atmosphere puts them out near Mars ---The idea that the Nero Zero ship is taking us somewhere gives them hope in some progress ; that MR and MRS CALM are taking us somewhere at least is seen by many as better than the Libs who appear to be not moving.
Chesterton would IMO , if he were alive. be telling the Parties, not which flag will win, but which flag and which ship will fall first. His "Flag of the World" is helpful here lhttp://ondewolf.blogspot.com

You can't trust anybody

, .....especially all those fanatics still clambering for attention.
Both old and new media ALL report on rumor 


Real news doesn't always matter .
Especially in 2024 when every source is clambering to gain and keep an audience. 

When  someone  spreads a rumor about someone in the congregation  who is not listening to "immanent danger of hell warnings" it simply doesn't matter that its old news , it news because it is a moral failure ( or appears to be for those in church at the time ) . How convenient for those who ignore the 8th commandment  that people sin daily- so  technically " another sin another day is news".

Todays news from SPENDER was that "renewables are the cheapest form of energy " Its a headline that cannot be justified , but it makes headine news in THE GUARDIAN . 

As Douglas Murray , a reporter on the media says so well ,  old and new media ALL report on rumor SO it becomes news . Good journos will say the economics of renewables is NOT NEWS ( its digestable knowledge ) but it doesn't matter.  Competency and truth go out the door if you allow the devil ( and all his false witnesses ) in. 

YOU  CANT TRUST ANYBODY when there are so many HIGH MORAL SIGNAL voices clambering for attention, and noone is listening to the 8th Commandment which kept the problem in check for a few centuries.
The noise will get louder NOW because half the country ( it seems just at the moment) see doing something about CC as a moral imperative.  All moral impertaives are now seen to be ' good "-- the only good? 
The fact that renewables are NOT doing it, now or ever ,  is far less important to the high priests club  than getting its pew sitters  to keep heeding the sermon and revoting in the priests in again for next week

More quickfix madness from those who are desperately failing to use our money well .

  Rob Sitch is at pains  IN UTOPIA  ABC  to remind the twits in charge of our Building Australia that they are so cringeworthy they think consultants will provide answers to  complex planning issues.

The public service used to exist to provide capable dependable reliable advice ( that is judging the consultants not the other way around ) for all the people . Now its a free for all ; nimbys , foxes in charge of chicken coupes and  long  waits to delight those who now get a free feed form the public purse  because they know  more abou  the passing  prey  than our innocent of evil polys . 

See the mess and evil  that Wyatt and Western Australia are creating by trying to control producers using consultants- people whose qualifications to control must always be able to be questioned by the public justice system. , 

this time around its aboriginal heritage areas "  Well trained inhouse agents in regional area would not only be a lot cheaper but have the big advantage of being credible and decisive without all the reams of paperwork  . 

How did we become victims of the new wolves of minority interests ? 

" The threat to sound decision making from unstable coalitions involving ignorant and inexperienced lobbyists is now a worldwide concern in the West .

Prominent British intellectual AC Grayling describes very well in two recent books ( "Democracy in Crisis" and "The Good State ") how many Western Governments are making quick fix decisions that don't work. He makes the point by just describing : "The Brexit / Boris mistake" (driven sadly by a referendum that went wrong ) and the unstable Trump/ Democrats means of not making decisions that finally make sense to the people.

Most of my clients in the bush have given up on the ruling parties years ago . We need our young , less worn out people to represent them and sound science in practice as they have already done with showing the way in egg and Australian produce marketing choices .- broadening the economics/ ecological principles debate. Thankfully not all our young people take the simple Marxist line . See UTOPIA ABC this week .

Most farmers and producers of this country usually don't have the energy for email and the internet; they too are without a VOICE .@Representing South West Victoria

Evil lurks within and without and giving dominion to one leader in our Country is not easy

 It has to be said that going Independant is a bit of a fad and there is every chance ( we should all be intelligent gamblers or cynics or both?) that most of the current crop are ,if not me generation" my way of the highway" types,

will  turn out to be ONE HIT WONDERS.Are they real team players or snake oil salemen ?

This foray may not be all good for Australia because desperation breeds http://quickfiz.blogspot.com and we need polys with staying power.

Independent candidates often appeal to people because they offer " the new " and seem progressive. not burdened by " the past" and the staid old stuff.  Fair enough-- that's me and most rural people everywhere .

While I will still make the difficult decision to support conservatives and team players, a good friend Augusto Zimmermann has just released a book on Scomo pointing out that he and many others in Parliament are living on the unsustainable whiff of appearing strong ( when we are surrounded by weakness woosy and soft -- the puppets in charge of parties for eg)
Think of ALL THE PREMIERS who wouldn't be in power if they weren't focused on pretending to be TOUGH ( say on lung infections ) - who now insist on mandating what makes no sense.

My point -- don't end up with puppets in charge because those who act strong and tough but aren't, will fall .The independent can be the tyrant who hasn't got the team spirit.   Aim for long term gain by rejecting the short term gain spinners everytime   

The country needs the objectivity of its most productive and competitive 

Careless Noise makers can get people to get killed . Ditch them

The rain along the east coast is not unusual, but the runoff is. 
Because rain is part of climate , ignorant climate activists open their big mouths and misdirect resources concern and cynicism .

 

In investigating the huge damage to houses in the  Barwon river floodplain in November 1995  , I was surprised to learn that neither the Engineers Australia  guidelines for runoff estimates  or the Met Bureau records were of any use in really understanding the ongoing very high risk of bigger than expected floods from some mountain areas , especially when moist easterlies were operating  .
To put it simply,  the modelling is not dynamic enough to pick upon the many site specific factors  ( like  orography ,soil erosion and bedload  )  that cause these unusually large amounts of water and silt rising out of channels .  .

The failure of planning authorities to anticipate a very high level of risk  is evident in the sloppy way these floods are reported and NOT anticipated when moist easterlies are active . (ongoing exposure near the Brisbane river locals  as a result of constant rain near Toowoomba.
ttp://designwithnature.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-biggest-threat-ever.html

The best way to picture the risk is to remember the limited ability of most clouds to produce more than an inch or two of water and the cooling effect  required to get even that amount . What happens  in these rare but quite predictable occasions is that the rising hills  provide the orographic cooling effect  required to et a train  of clouds to give up their moisture on one locality for many hours on end.
2 inch per hour in one spot  becomes 20 inches in one spot and no soil can take it as we can see ( if we have eyes to see ) in the water .We can even see a bit about "whose soil where" by the color 

.  


If we allow ignorant wannabes to continue to blame everything on climate change,  there will be deaths and destruction because of them because they redirect support away from the real consequences of real environmental risks  we should be facing . 

The failure of planning authorities to anticipate a very high level of risk  is evident in the sloppy way these floods are reported and NOT anticipated when moist easterlies are active . (ongoing exposure near the Brisbane river locals  as a result of constant rain near Toowoomba.)

The best way to picture the risk is to remember the limited ability of most clouds to produce more than an inch or two of water and the cooling effect  required to get even that amount . What happens  in these rare but quite predictable occasions is that the rising hills  provide the orographic cooling effect  required to et a train  of clouds to give up their moisture on one locality for many hours on end. 


If we allow ignorant wannabes to continue to blame everything on climate change,  there will be deaths and destruction because of them because they redirect support away from the real consequences of real environmental risks  we should be facing . 

Panic merchants and witchdoctors

 The proper protective alliance between sound science and practice is increasingly under threat from ignorant and arrogant wannabe panic merchants (desperate media and polys )  who insist on being the  first to announce their new potions to fix our diseases ( or the  mere symptoms )  

For the record , I do not support this narrow and false ambition of great long lists and going for broke in everything. Zero targets deny ecological reality, take all the will out of doing anything and it’s simply not how the wonderful world we live in works. 

Sure, life is harsh and cruel in places, but it's more resilient than the panic merchants and their tribes of witchdoctors now insist. 

Remote worry warriors, who meet together on tops of hills, like they do in East Melbourne, to name the evil agents and again set our agendas for the week, is what is really wrong with this country.
Science, to actually  work for our good , must have its feet firmly on the ground. Otherwise we end up chasing snowballs in a blizzard, hot air scares and windmill poking.   

I say again, that we here in  Colac Otway Region need to take the lead as we have done before, and support only our very best scientists and practical people to achieve changes that can be modelled elsewhere. You can find a list of just how clever our part of the country can be by looking up my short list on the internet . 

http://swearthnews.blogspot.com 

No mention of the fear doesn't mean the risk is gone away

The risk and the reason for it is badly stated  

If the fear has been around awhile,  you can be sure the people will put pressure on to stop EVERYBODY talking about it . When PC is the ruling philosophy,  nobody is safe. The truth will set us free,  but the price for those who sit too comfortably away from it , is . in their opinion.  too high 

No leader can stop this imperfect process of making ,gaining and then losing fear and trust . The leaders who play up to it should leave . ( take Vic and NSW  playing up to overlast seasons bushfires)   
It will be hastened in Andrews case by the child and then the public  realisation that his chasing of substance through his own stats collection  is misplaced concreteness.
Not even a good epidemiologist should trust the leader to know what it is doing ( when it presumes to on risk questions) A wise lieutenant  would insist in help to avoid a corrupting and cloned consensus that the dilittants in charge can often seek from the real experts and ones who know stuff .  .   

So what will precipitate the loss of panic .who knows?  It may not be all good 
 One good reason for reducing the panic will be  the realization .that much advice was not taken in the first place about the risk and how to deal  with it ( that includes PM Morrison) 
The inevitability of push back ( when the risk is badly stated - shortstated ) must come when those in charge don't know what they are doing and have explained nothing to date ( except driven home the same old fear tactics -- see the list of stats listed elsewhere )

People smell a rat when  leaders in crisis are NOT  prepared to admit they don't know what they are doing . 
Attention seeking is not just what children do ( the person in the story ) its what some leaders are actually good at .Such a leadership style may gain momentum , but has no sustainability . 

As the Spanish flu epidemic showed , once people stop  talking about a fear, Fear doesn't go awa, y it just becomes PC not to mention it  , 

 So,  just as the fear words were used to effect to START the panic , the absence of fear words will be used to end the fear.  Its all to do with using a meredescription.
blogspot.com PC name   , 

TODAYS DEVELOPMENTS 
August 30th 2020   Quote 

Why does every one think case numbers mean something? 

Presumably when COVID is no longer news ,, it won't be the subject of worry,   

Does this preoccupation with simple stats stuff  mean it's gone away when numbers go down  ?  

Do polys think we are stupid--- that they explain nothing and keep using their own versions 

or the fear of death facts as their primary message ? 

Andrews doesn't tell us "deaths with" and "death by COVID: , test/case ratios ( until last week ) or ' immune response triggered " facts such as localities under heavy testing. It could be expected that the current agglutination testing is inadequate to show "exposure" because a lot of resistance is needed to build up antigens ?'

Unless more info on the above and the perceived herd immunity level is known, Morrison is mad to accept the attention seeking Premiers equally non compos mentis unproven significance of shallow catchprases like "hotspots " and " waves" .

Does anyone know what the new catch phrase "active " means ? (infectious , adapting , overcoming or what?) Forget chasing a vaccine dillitantants - At what point do they hope to identify the evil bug,,,,,, not its aftermarth , Spring street are trying to lock the door after the horse has bolted.

Why is the CMO not speculating on the level of herd immunity,,,, now present?

Maybe all the testing, tracing and "no talk" about the above means our leaders are no wiser from all their brilliant investigation techniques ?

No news is good news

One thing that works for the mental health of our household in this COVID crisis is to switch off TV completely over news time.

It will take the wannabe herds  and the polys some time to realize that many of us are doing this for our own mental health.

The wannabes are clamouring, as usual,  for our attention . What these fanatics  fail to realise is that they know little more than we do ( and therefore should just billboard the CMO)

BUT worse
- they push their speculation(/leading to more lies half truths , fake news ,laws and less guidelines ) all over us day after day. its what fanatics do

The nonsense in the news media goes to prove several things
1. Trump was right about at least one thing - The waste from Fake news in OUR lives
2. The people are predictably more compliant when  fear is the driver  and fear is not addressed with fact ( the extent of the infection agents in each country)
3.  Economy of information.and instruction is critical   I know  as a risk managemnet planner -- "you don't say too much and only what is necessary"   _http://ecomia.blogspot.com

4, Comfort the people with things they should know- and act upon ( Switch the TV off )
a That the wannabes and media are desperate to prove their diminishing power over us  ( esp with the  net available )
b So many stupid and wayward things have been said in this period that its unbelievable .( Switch the TV off )
 c As always in history ITS  those who claim to be doing things in the name of best intention that  are the most dangerous ,
d  Watch Wannabes closely -Especially those leaders who rush into solutions their minds have invented and whose real actionsthe integrated patient professional practice of checking what actions in a crisis are really neccesary  ( by the CMO) .
e Teaching people who don't normally listen well ( all of us ??)  to listen well can mean the t great leader ( just a man who know s something -- the child in the story?) occasionally  YELLING  and also calling for silence too -   

No one normally on the end of a microphone seems to get that,  at the moment.

I wonder if God has intervened in history?
  ( Romans 13 - my lecture topic )

On the correct use of the precautionary principle

There is something new under the sun

The meddling management culture .

The proper use of the precautionary principle ( which the aforementioned grab from the workers tool bag as if they know how to use it) means

WE the public  have to 

STOP management culture operatives from trying to apply the tool they can be expected to be incompetent in using 

 SUMMARY

The ONLY people who should be allowed to pronounce actions ( moment by moment as risk wanes and changes) are those professionals who study and take advice on the risks. let me call that person the CMO  Chief Message Officer .

Everyone below him will have an opinion,  but those below job is not to spread the virus of half baked , but make sure the top of the line knows about all probabilities so he/she can weigh them up  . .

By way of introduction We risk assessors have seen it all before in risks of all kinds - no need to panic .

1. TIME related talks 
Because risk is a time related function we the public must save time; use it well and differently -and expect some relief from the stress with time .  if "stages" are mentioned that can help us manage the time .

1. Save the CMO  time means that the CMO person can be clear and confident to an audience who in their impatience have to WAIT respectfully and quietly for word from the top .
2. 2. Of short duration Confusion in audience is avoided bu being clear and concise - even if advice is not complete or perfect advice 
3. The people ho wait can expect to be told how long? .  People can,  if they are patient,  then can expect to have the CMO lower the time of stress .the CMO if he is wise will set a high outside  limit for waits so he has room to reduce them.
4. The audience can expect that if the CMO states a time of crisis it can be expected that the time of waiting will be reduced with time . While such advice does not solve all the audiences challenges,  it is GOOD and sound advice ; it shares the risk and uncertainty with people to decide on their  own circumstances. its consistent advice . 

 For example the passage of a disease or a rainfall event while originally set  over a long period  "can be expected" ( this is how we talk probability ) can be set for a shorter period over the real risk period . While the waiting annoys a generation  now used to instant gratification,  they should be counseled in five  matters

1. There will be a waiting period which will end . Be patient , the real risk will decrease with time . 
2. It is to be expected that the longer the real threat lasts,  the less the waiting time till a resolution. However bad the results are ( we are not god is the CMO's job - quite a contrast to some wannabes ideas .  
3. Appropriate Risk words and ideas need to be learnt and used well by all exposed - a lot of these ideas  are  new  to some . eg  disease contracted does not mean death . most people will eventually be exposed internally ( via lungs most likely)
   Appropriate risk ideas with a virus
   CLEAR CONSISTENT"some must self isolate and all must social distance "CMO words    " 
   
   TESTING
   Do not ask for tests .Testing won't always be cost effective for control because ts expensive and not direct ;symptoms may not show progress of disease
   CASES  can be misleading - the virus can be expected to be in most people with time via the lungs.
   POSTPONE  you can expect the risk with time . listen for estimates and revised estimates of that time 
4. Wannabes will write their own scripts - do not listen to them;  they maybe conscious or unconscious fear mongers . Wannabes love to fill the gap of the unknown with information . 
5. Real protection comes if you only listen to the CMO - you personally are not familiar with the risk because they are new  ( like a risk manage is ) let that experience work for you by listening only for him,. 

See also the god assumption on modern western culture and the fear and denial of death .What this means in practice is that as the West has rejected its trust in God , our leaders expect to play God resulting in unreal expectations of  not only heaven on earth  but eternal life here ( denial of the place of death in life and nature), 


This post is based on my experience in risk assessment and should not be used as a reason to ignore the current risks from coronavirus. We are IMO all obliged to take the Chief Medical Officers advice  and only that . This has been , and always will be,  the best advice for the public .

Let the expert be the ONLY person who uses the precautionary principle .
Wannabes .managers and polys must refrain from speculation at times of real risk,  less they heighten the panic (and reduce the collection of sound cost benefit advice ) . .

I feel obliged to write this short note because the  truths of abuse are well known

and important for any future risk discussion so that , we the people, understand and  limit unnecessary and ineffective panic actions by public authority figures . Time to button one's lip and listen .

The uncomfortable truth is that politicians and wannabes are prone to misusing the precautionary principle simply because its not their money they are spending and because they now see their job as preventing risk  to individuals , when no one can really do that properly 

Properly doing risk assessment means properly doing costing of options and the tough scientific connections .

There is then. in the post modern world , a bit of the god assumption hidden in the predictable action to just keep spending by the modern management class  ,

This is seen in the focus on pretending deaths( which we can do )but not very easily and not without the cost benefit that an advised CMO will take.It also seen in the public confusion about what having the virus in your body means ( it does not mean death and it can be expected that most people will be exposed to it at some point in the near future and develop some immunity to it .

Real world risk assessors know that all risk management is a cost benefit exercise .Many postmodern managers do not know this - this is  partly because the only people who understand risk are professional observers and they have a fixed processes that they will follow .
All I wanted to do today ( 22nd March 2020) is note what has to be a lot of overreaction at many levels .
Let me just state it simply
Real world Risk assessors do use the precautionary principle but they don't use it in isolation from a closer look at the range of real risks - which is what mono cultural managers of issues do.

Why mention the adverse effect of management culture ?
Simply because it can be and often is a costly adverse
and ineffective action.  They should not for example be allowed to exaggerate the risk of death ( the avoidance  factor )or maintain ignorant confusion but get the CMO to make that matter clear .

Summary   LISTEN and know who to listen to. 

Most management class people side on the side of caution when they don't really know enough to say anything . In the internet age, everyone has an opinion so as a combined group they can ensure the majority rule. this is NOT GOOD because  the majority do not KNOW enough to really KNOW .

Its the CMO's job too to listen and advise alone on that basis . 

On recurring bouts of panic

Its 17th March 2020 here in Victoria Australia .  Supermarket shelves everywhere in every town are being stripped bare. Last week it was just toilet paper oats and rice you couldn't get but this week you will struggle to get meat and frozen goods . The shelves are bare with people every where . The accepted practice of self isolation by choice has become  mandatory with large events being cancelled like the place is going into lock down . groups of over 500 were banned. today groups of over 100 are banned . The threat is a new version of  a coronavirus

I am not a panic merchant and hopefully weigh up risk well in my areas of ecosystem stress. With the current threat from a new virus I expect the time for self isolation will soon pass - as most people become exposed to it personally .This does not mean there is not irrational level of panic about ( see below)
 My advice is that but we all must take the best medical advice even if we have our doubts ( as they do ) about whether we can prevent deaths from it easily. and by intervention and change of normal habits .
As with all risk ,we should not invent , as the potential non objective   threatened  participants,  our own concerns ( eg need to test ourselves with expensive agents ) . We do not need to , as usual avoid taking up the time  management need to keep discussing and consulting for possible practical and achievable  choice constraints. Those delegated to provide authority on these matters.( observers)need time and respect.
  Risk as the former posts speak,  requires rapid but timely site and time specific consideration and audience panic will not help governments do that in the limited time available .What size hammer isn't always the issue if we think  hammers ? we can do more damage than good . Its not only technique and changing daily technique but the likely Cost benefit of EACH vaguely relevant action.


BACKGROUND     "No time for panic"  A paper

I have been preparing since before Christmas Nov 2019 a paper for a science conference ( ISCAST.org ) on the subject of why people are in such a panic about environmental risk  issues .
The subject of the paper is on unreasonable food ,fire and water worries.


The positive thing is if the right people use the right tools we can avoid the sustainability that has so plagued our past .
The late entry of the coronavirus in autumn 2020 came as a  complete surprise because my issues are water soil food and fire worries . see the brief here .
While I did a top microbiology  course at Uni and have studied soil ever since i don't feel qualified to predict the outcome of complex disease questions best left to others.
However as an competent environmental risk assessor as well,  its clear that the some reactions are more in panic than in substance. The right hammer in the right place should be left to those who listen closely to show themselves approved .
We know progress and seriousness of the disease can be expected to be clearer in a few months time when it has spread more widely around the world, The Prime Minster has,  it seems, as we all should ,  taken the Chief Medical Officers advice ( as as he take advice) and set the cautionary period of six months .( at the outside ?) While there is clearly lots more panic than is justified , sound risk management means we wait on the best medical advice . It will not surprise me if the widespread presence of the disease amongst humans in a few months time means that like will go back to normal .Will that knowledge at least , we can postpone some events.

I hope that we do not go back to the unconvincing idea of sterilizing all substrates (like our hands )
There is still a lot of misinformation about , especially amongst those who assume authority ( the managements classes and wannabes )  see note below

I did micro at uni over 50 yrs ago and studied/speculated it in soils and substrates weekly ever since.
IMO The basic vulnerabilities and functions of viruses are known but its the ecological associations ( just as in my work) that are probably not . We were taught very clearly over 50 years ago with the "Eastern" focus on results”( technology eg Japan ) that basic scientific research would suffer . Its certainly true of research in my area of ecological risk assessment and prosecution. Perhaps you can tell me -Who is doing primary research on microbiological ecology ?

Take  the out of hand panic about hand washing -hand sanitizes

Hand sanitizes 
60% alcohol,  if you use it on your hands all the time will take away much of the oil and colonies that normally live on your skin. You  are best to keep your hands clean but don't keep offering new tenants a place at your house by killing off the old ones .
Your hands are what is known in biochemistry as a substrate
If you want to be ahead of the game take the ecologists point of view  http://ecomia.blogspot.com

More fake news from ABCTV

I have been listening all day to the ABCTV reporting of fires, mainly in NSW TODAY December 21st with Andrew Gaugin at the helm.




The ABC should be prosecuted for crying wolf with their constant talk of "catastrophe " , Until the wind gets up , the danger is , at worst ,severe , not catastrophic . http://ondewolf.blogspot.com..


Take the bushfires driven by northerlies in our area . Lorne went in minutes as did many areas burnt in 1939 fires

.

Catastrophes occur because people believe half baked crap

Some examples 














Background . There are always things we don't know in the precipitation of a man made disaster,  but the evidence is that ,what was obvious to a few, or very few ,wasn't effectively communicated to those who could have done something to prevent it. 

The occasions when no one saw the risk are  rare and not the focus here.
The terrible truth is that  there are often many ways on the road to catastrophe to prevent it,  which makes the noise from constant general talk of catastrophe just another example of careless crap .


The other terrible truth is that not many of us are good listeners - especially when it comes our objectivity about a bigger picture. about the truth others may have ( Peterson's rule 9)

Take this claim from the  climate catastrophians that "the end of the world is nigh " ,Why aren't many of  us NOT listening to them? 
I heard someone say on the sacred ABC  that 100% of scientists agree with him  , but  that's a lie.  Noone should follow a liar or treat the ABC staff as knowing what we need to know-- most are not anywhere near practicing scientists .A deep trust in what ALL scientists think is not very deep because scientists dont always agree - esp on implications of their knowledge.
I hate it that my profession is implicated but not properly involved (say debate), but you should know we scientists get ignored too- whatever we truly know!--

We are not listening to the  catastrophians too because we don't really know where the climate catastrophe persons want us to run to? If such people want to be listened (and not further condemned ) they must  succinctly save time and spell out the road to avoidance. No more burning of any kind ?, Sequestration of a truly substantive kind? 
With volcanoes and landslides,it helps if a local scientist is on the ground , You the reader need to know there are none-NOW - there used to be before , TODAY you NOW get a noise on your phone or on radio . ring 000 what a huge waste of money is spent by state governments  trying to act like parents to us !  "I will tell you when your life is at risk " --they say .You would be mad to trust them  

It is the very crime of the catastrophians that they misuse hearing time  by not being specific .
Is it the crime of our very own broadcaster that they are quite subtle and sly  in refusing to let a variety of voices ( close to action ) be heard on the subject /their subject choice .( thankfully One 2 One and other programs like Arndo is changing things)
 Real risk reduction always requires  specific recognition of cocontentating forces. This is of course is the annoying truth -you have to listen to the long winded way of all scientists and observers in practice-to see when the planets collide --- too bad there are no short cuts,, and crying wolf kills  )
The crime of the catastrophians is that they waste time talking about risk in ways which do not really address it . 
The important  but differing roles of the student , the participant and the observer ( very important subject noted here with S , O ' and P's below ) is not the main focus here.

The very human reasons why proper communication did not occur,  as with the fable, is the focus here.,  I have had the privilege of being both S, P and O as a geoscientist working in rural areas.

These deep historic and ongoing realities in men's failure to really listen to each other MUST be taken as critical if we are to avoid both small and large disasters. Excuse making we can't stop, but by being alert and not alarmed ,we can avoid more disasters.  

The Aberfan tragedy 1966  
The risk of a pile of excavated fill going thixotrophic when saturated would have been observed by many people in most moist towns across the country. You don't have to be an expert to notice ( S+O) important things-- to be a good observer (O)  ,

Geoscientists know the risk of landslide to be very high  and the risk of slurry slide to come with momentum energy that would be developed by its height in the landscape ( the situation at Aberfan) . Sitting high above a city,  its hard not to think slurry and landslide at some point. Why the blindness? (B)
 While one might have expected the local geotechnical engineers (S) to have at one moment noticed the probable structural  failure of fill outside,  their daily focus  was quite normally  on structural failure inside the mine ( where lives were also at risk of being lost ) ,

A key risk  for any of us is that we can be so close to something  ( a good thing and the best thing )  (P) is we can't see it (S)   We need to listen to each other to live well .
 Prosecution of sound risk management usually requires at least TWO parties( eg P+O) to talk to each other. 
We don't know who didn't talk to who,  but we do know that as usually happens with HBC-- the obvious is touted as  cause  when in reality risk will usually run deeper. The creek was a focus for some but the low factor of safety was all that mattered . We know the very high rainfall of the time was blamed by management but those of who study the substance know that all sort of  secondary is normally highly distractionary.
Yes  for eg rainfall is a cause but,,,,,,,,,

If you cut no deeper  that the risk of bush fire being increased by higher than normal temperatures (TODAY- drafted in November)  you will probably be not advancing the cause of prevention protection and real wisdom about risk.

If you talk when someone else should be talking , you risk being the problem. 

GPS on our phones should be used as a way of alerting people to risks. 

You heard it first from Emperors Academy
Don' t forget to never leave technology in the hands of wannabes , Give it over to professional scientists ( and geoscientists in particular )

Situation normal

When the children insist they know things , wise adults stop talking . Pity about the not so wise!



THIS Aesops fable provides us with a quick link to reality and the poor ways we often deal with risks. Effective risk advice is about timing specifics , so many wannabes are out of order by always talking about it .

The problem of cry wolf  is particularly acute in our age because less and less people have daily jobs ( like farming or working in the environment) which expose them daily to risk .
But that's by no means  all
The stupidity didn't start yesterday and the children problem has always been with us .

What many ageing and inexperienced Western reactionaries  don't realize is that they have fallen for excuses for our behavior  ( nature does not dismiss nurture)  and accepted the bad and immature practices of childhood.  Petersons rule no 9
So the problem of panic talk is particularly acute in our age because we as a culture do not respect the authorship and calming influence of the whole truth that comes with study and experience -- Find and talk to the really busy people who know the area- if you have time .

Our homes are bombarded with noise and worry. Best to switch off the TV at least .
I'll leave it to you when you switch off the children


He --who like to  thinks he knows more about the outside world  "Did you hear the weather report for tomorrow Darling ?" 
 She ..who just lets him think things,  but feeds him facts   "Apparently there is a 95% chance that the media will find a new catastrophe to talk about tomorrow."

He   "Whats for lunch ? "

Some other time we will continue the conversation about who knows more about what! The conversation is not always nice , because we will challenge each other , but very healthy
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SziWxOYTcDY3YHy9wnpR59aBstzXIYm6Lk2_8lr8TcM/edit?usp=sharing


Meanwhile , I suggest we all go to confession


https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRE_Bn-V8LuLhUQI4KIwoM4X5d0ToZHEh_EK-TbuXzg/edit?usp=sharing

Adapted from the confession used in Christian meetings worldwide for centuries .

Conflating the Conflagration

Last weeks media madness will go down in history as the last ditch effort of the worry warriors to try and make a case for a future holocaust - and incendiary end to life on earth as we know it .
"The bush fires are worse than ever ever before " .
Its not been enough to state science science science, the  arrogant unqualified now break the fundamental rules in science  . The ABC and many others have to promote a future hell on earth by joining the dots in a way which offends anyone with half a brain , "The bush fires are worse than ever ever before " .
The Australian  newspaper was the only one to state the crap production in the media ; the real news about all the fake news

The poor old Age has forgotten what it is to report anything that isn't PC .Like so many desperate to avoid denying the failure of the progressive faith , they waste hours filtering facts to suit their theories.
.Does The Age  remember we stopped reading it years ago ? . They remember how the Argus went under . An unrepentant  subtle sly and bloody approach to the house on the hill won't save them from final judgement .

In a paradox of profound proportions these blinkered minds are out doing old Hanrahan. At least he was in the ball park ..

Meanwhile the real dystopian elements undermining the West go undiscussed -- except maybe at church before the normal speculation outside afterwards.  Speculation is in the right order in such places .

The fanaticism of wolf risk worrying is all around us

Examples
1.  Feminists on Q andA last night .Nov 4th2019   The modern woman who wants sexual freedom finds the man who takes the same licence to be bad company . What does she expect ? Reject traditional marriage with its paradoxical but workable  tensions in honor, leadership and servanthood and this is what you get.    Its abused by men especially  tis true,  but not by all men .  The wolf is not visiting every house in teh street ; God knows why soem are leaving teh door open for him.
2. The risks of environmental damage are real , but if you don' t study the world , you don't realize that not all man does is bad ( new doctrines of misanthropy )
If you study the stuff of life you get to realize  that resilience is real and  provides real reasons when not to worry ; when to cut cull and carry and repair . https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AJI5nO4FipVQajqtnJm91NbQLh-axceVUpcu3qgHk-4/edit?usp=sharing

When do you ever learn something watching the ABC on environmental affairs ?

The ABC are not fear mongers you might say !
 On the surface i think you would be right,  because they go to a  lot of trouble to not look like they are.
Which means,  if it is true, thinking audiences need to dig deeper.
One of the reasons I don't learn much from watching the ABC is because they are so cynical.
Another reason I don't learn from them is that they don't employ  practical scientist who can answer tough questions. Kruzelnitsky and Sampson love making points of theory , for example hoping the audience will be impressed , Most of us expect probability statements on real risks .
Clearly many in the ABC audience do not see the problem I have --- until you put the question above and the failures below ( just examples ) or mention Political correctness

https://hanrahan.blogspot.com/2019/10/hope-in-all-dust.html

ABC journos do have reason to worry  ( on the  reporting of environmental risk in particular )

1. The Science Show has been run for decades by a non scientist ,
2. Some of the lack of controversy ( should be normal) is due to tokenistic, quickgrabs and ignorance the subject matter  ( the other side of the story- esp political )
3.  Major political blunders on environment have occurred on their watch WITHOUT any  apology about the fact that they ignored warnings from competent experts, Who were they listening to ??? Politicians ????
   --1   State attempts to create water
   --2   An 18 billion MD plan that isn't working-
   --3  Rural people switching off ABC and watching SKY
   --4 Many bushfire imperatives from RC's have not been adopted
   
   3  They continue to expect us to believe polys and media people know things on the above eco and env subjects ..    They read "Scoop"  but never got it
   
   
   THIS  WEEK
4. PIDDLING into the Barham . The redgums need a real big flood to set new trees growing in sustainable sites ( not salty ones !!)  http://cuttingedgecare.blogspot.com
5. SEAL explosion  ( landline )   I mean even  today noone has twigged that the devastation that the seals have done in Lake Alexandrena is related to stupidly simple ideologues like  Burke and Wong putting precious water into a semi saline pond  in the gospel name of "environmental flow."    The MD plan is NO plan is it doesn't cover "predictable events "

Worry warriors out of their tree over the reef

The worry warriors are fearful of reef damage from polluted runoff from land 
Lesson 1  Don't  listen to people quoting scientists ( people will quote those who agree with them) ; listen to scientists themselves .If you are not a scientist you will often need to LISTEN long to a range of them because on these complex questions , they don't always agree and it takes years to gain competency over the ecosystems ( cf plant or animal ) involved .
What many citizens do not know too is that much so called independent science research on environment has been captured by the politically correct . eg the cuddly stuff . You will read here about soil -- where are the soil scientists in YOUR state Utopia group ? 
 Should you trust someone whose just outta school ?(
Should you trust those who claim to know all the important things cause their facts are at their fingertips on a computer playing  with atmospheric physics modelling and because they are paid specifically to come up with more worries re climate ? 

Lesson 2  The solution to pollution is often dilution . Make up you own minds and study the flocculation after events . 
Lesson  3   Watch Utopia . People trying to do/help  the experts  do his/her job is driving the experts and honest brokers mad 
 
Whose a good scientists  to trust? One who admits he often knows more and more about less and less  

THE REEF  ( Great barrier reef Australia in particular)  Note nearshore ( discussed here ) can be different from wavecut platforms  etc 
The reef like any ecosystem is a complex but resilient beast , Like all ecosystems it requires a number of scientists to understand  the actual boundaries of each animal or plants, resilience and how it works both individually and together; the stresses in lifecycle year, season and circumstance are full of variables. 

WHAT WE DO KNOW   about near shore effects from streams .

1. Water bodies are usually  precariously infertile, That is , they struggle to maintain  nutrient recycling near the surface because gravity operates on both solids and solutes (the critical unseen particles )  
2. Life in water is dependant then on phases A- phases of growth and decline ; B phases of depletion and infertility ; C phases of dependency ( algae feeding fish bacteria protozoa zooplankton etc )  D phases of regeneration ( seeding spores and high substrate  availability - from another phase ; phases or death or threat ( wind and calm ) 
3.  Fresh water entering salt water can release large amounts of much needed food  but the various phases of growth and decline vary greatly with space and time , A turbid flood does not reduce light penetration in seawater for long as high salts flocculate the clays .( generally) 
4. In general and in the big picture,   the reefs can benefit greatly  from highly nutrient rich  from land  runoff. They after all often running near empty on some equations of productivity and growth . 
5. While soil could impact negatively on the growth of algae and various other species,  the soil particles do not remain suspended for long and their attendant cation site attachments are welcome with little likelihood of deep deposits on reefs 
6. Do not panic . even the most turbid water coming from land is soon  flocculated in sea water .
   
   Take the fake news off the news please   we don't watch the ABC much now anyways as they employ few practical scientists and follow the weight of the political moment in the direction of  ignorant fear mongers and cynics. 

read  Douglas Murray in "The madness of crowds" )

Utopia

Good art is often confrontational. It puts the current deep dilemmas in a frame;  but it doesn't often do it nicely. When the powerful get fanatical they feel it face on, full on .

So why is there so little confrontational art around? ( working dog's UTOPIA , and MAD as HELL come later )
--The ABC would rather produce comedy and there is a case with their new domestic dramas that the --ABC have completely confused the road to fun serious domestic . Either way ABC Art is not cutting it
--The ABC do too much navel gazing in their own contexts ( mechanistic rather than artistic paradoxically) as GKC put it , the real anarchists are offsite .

 Art  does cut  more truthfully and directly  than this slow burn cynical nonsense  of rationally driven action; where  "my idea is always the best "
Art does this in a way that mere description ( the myth that sub scientists often adopt as gospel) cannot.

Powerful people (eg media and politics  ) can't usually hack this sort of art in their direction  because their world view is the present and the current action agenda is their own .
Art will tell our mothers fathers and leaders that their unrepentant blindness is driving us  who know things all to despair and suicide ,
Art,  at its best , puts the frightening human condition ( denial arrogance hypocrisy)of all .. to the test  Those who hide behind talk of being most rational are currently most exposed .

DYSTOPIA
Good art for example on climate concerns would remind us  that some thing is still missing from the self evidently super rational picture presented by the now fanatical powerful worry warriors.

Despite over ten years of fact,after fact , no amount of facts stacks up because the facts are self select . Only this week we have the ABC reporting the pre Archimedes nonsense that icebergs,  when the melt , will raise the sea level . In water they are already displacing the  water   



Good art on climate change will probably bring the  house down with just  one well put  laugh on the above programs . Poor art and politics is humorless .Its like living in 1984. no this , no that and only chocolate when you are good .



UTOPIA
While many of us who lost our  opportunity to effect sound public service because of the quick fix politics of the media and politicians love Utopia , WE find it hard to watch the isolated sense makers like Rob and Celia get screwed - week after week. ( as happened to us ) whats needed to break the spell may not be nice, but we know its coming .
Our children can't afford to have the country being run by technological fix agents ( Ellul) , posies corrupted by collective incompetence that results from not weeding out unsound logic . the logic that increases the number of complicit consultants and public servants and alienates those who know better , I have written to Ida to ask her to get Arhn do ( or others ) to paint the picture of some of our lost and now largely silent  prophets.
Real dilemmas in art are good,  but sometimes not as effective in making us see solutions an seeing people amid their mistakes .

I love it how they get Celia to ask -- " talk to the future"  (or are they just afraid to ?) some of us are always talking to a better future by simply  confronting the reality of the unweeded garden. 



SOME GOOD STUFF ON THE ABC   this will come as a surprise to some no doubt who know I don't bother ( mostly) watching their selection of news and excessive commentary on it (  I used to) . 

HARD QUIZ  This show is not perfect  but I do love the way Tom Gleeson demonstrates a fair way forward in this mad pedantic world of the internet where personal confrontations are now forbitten by many. 
The way forward for the West is the same way it has always been .
As long as the issue is about your ideas and the conversation is an open face to face one then I am all for risking it.  Anger,  hostility and deprecation are plainly dangerous but somehow that forum is OK for all is forgiven because it is finally out in the open ??  Its  a open court in the great Western tradition . 
  Despite all the indulgent swearing and the shallowness of the content , Hard Quiz is still one of the most entertaining  and useful models of sound and sustainable values going at the moment .Everyone gets to be heard and if the comments are careless,  there is a chance for them to be corrected.