If you want nature to rule, go hide in the cupboard

 

If you want nature to rule, go hide in the cupboard because the wolf is going to get you one night when you and your gods are not looking; when you think you are safely in the arms of things that require understanding before you can really trust or work with them. 

Helicopter parenting and helicopter grandparenting are not the most efficient way to address the reality of huge risk in the environment. Proper local understanding and action is the efficient driver of sound protection and really effective  risk management.  Inane unhelpful and misdirected worry and chatter should be avoided at all costs. 

The helicopters were busy in our neck of the woods this week. FIRE and FLOODS

They rescued wrecked cars from the beach. The cars were dead, but people could have died too because  the warnings came too late to get people out of the flood area . 
The rescuers and the people were not given enough close and specific information about the impending danger.

 

We have known for 30 years that the return period for such events in rivers in the eastern Otways is less than 20 years. Any geomorphologist, or wise child, might even note the huge power that moves the obvious boulders which form the base of these streams. Proper integrated planning of soils, water and geomorphic processes confirmed the risk well over 30 years ago. Read the reports listed below. 

 

As long ago as 1983 it was known by those of us who studied and planned water structures in the Region that south easterlies, which predictably blow for days can be expected to generate large dumps of rain on the eastern end of the Otways because of the process of orographic up lift of those high humidity clouds. The process by which these unusual events happen go beyond the simple evaluation that only focuses on the amount of rain clouds can release in various climatic conditions ( the oft mentioned 120 mm ) and what has happened in rainfall recorders (of which there are only a few ) ,

As described in the links below, there is no excuse for the emergency authorities to not know and  understand this process and be expecting floods when the easterlies were blowing consistently for many long hours before the midday events in Lorne. 

Understanding where we are. 

The reason the emergency authorities are not anticipating danger is often a result of a disease they inherit from those who have tried to run the government and the environment remotely for decades.  Let me call this a version of a disease you may be familiar with; 

Helicopter parenting 

Where parents avoid confrontation with the real risks of earth.

The participants ( child and parent )  learn nothing but to panic and spend money in anticipation of unknown risks they would know if they properly engaged with the earth.


Helicopter grand parenting of the Environment   This modern phenomenon is much , much worse than the above because it really doesn't know the risks and how the various components of the ecosystem soil water and climate work together. 

When nature strikes in the backyard of remote managers , they would be better to hide in a cupboard. The wolf is real, but you must understand the wolf and his brilliant space us habits to be safe from the wolf.   
. 
to be continued . 

https://swearthnews.blogspot.com/2022/01/easterlies-have-major-role-in-shaping.html

https://designwithnature.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-biggest-threat-ever.html

You don't want to be mauled, so fight the beast off before it gets close to you and wins the war .

The Wolf wins by talking to humans in tones sweet and tuneful, pretending he is even your friend. Narcissists and politicians use the same technique to get humans to listen to them.
But do modern humans even know this?  
The beast knows the best way to win the war is to get close to you. The beast does not threaten you with knives anger and things you can see, but things you can't see. This subtle beast knows you better than you know yourself. The wolf knows your fears ( like guilt) and He is the first to face them and use them against you.  
The beast knows that you might be focused on the arms race, whereas he knows the way to win the war is for him to play harmless and inflate your pride and your self -righteousness in particular. To con you before he gets his claws into you. To sap your energy and resources, in subtle ways, before he strikes.  

We are rich, live on an island, and fancy ourselves as some of most fair-minded people in the world; . This feeblemindedness, based as it is on a simple self-righteous feeding game where we the threatened, agree that we are all good blokes, is no doubt what Mr Chamberlain represented when he left his country naked for war in 1945.

Which flag should we follow?

We all like to think we are safe but still moving -it doesn't make sense but that is the centre of the lost man's mind; We all know there is a wolf about ,but only those who study consistently and who train make their bodies to walk well, honestly and openly will get somewhere. That group may be in minority.

Being comforted when you are really confused is not going to work long term ,but it feels good for the moment . The public mind in 2025 is a mess. Lots of children who have never grown up, are in charge.These immature ones may have confidence, but its confidence misplaced. In Public life , sound logic is missing and true paradox in the sound bites is alive and well as GK Chesterton was fond of putting it . We no longer care that we are rational as much as we care to be comforted by our own rationale. It doesn't matter which side of politics you are on. The one remaining problem as Jung and the 66 plus testimonies spell out is "man himself"; A fearful but hopeful creature who his unable to be objective and active in repentance about his wayward and wasteful ways.

The challenge for us down to earth conservatives ( or should I say bridge and foundation builders) is to sell the idea that moving slowly and more deliberately works when panic and movement seems necessary to many; many who continue to listen to the voices of a cheap and easy way to build the sustainable. The way the feebleminded start is how they finish; every crashing down episode; their very own lifestyle choice that, in a short term way works for them; they are "saved" by the quick escape so when their time comes they can be expected to anticipate "a narrow escape' based on "moving on" from memory. Someone will pay for all the quick fix movements the incompetent make.  The rule of the universe and ecology is generally short term gain, long term pain. We must remind ourselves that an age which chooses promiscuity in thought and action will become confused and unreliable in its talk, just as the promiscuous always do - when any one of us choose to say one thing and do another, There is a way of security but it's harder and slower; Our children can confidently place their shoes on steeper and slower path. This is NOT the path of so many; the maladaptive childish way of learning to get what you want or think you need. We live in an age which knows a lot about the real value of sound science, The promiscuous however, do not allow themselves to operate under its constraints and therefore their learning experience is empty ; they build nothing and remain at risk of always continuing in two minds; of being feebleminded. In their relative ignorance of both Science reason and the need for real personal restraint, they have more reason to fear than those who don't just talk of resilience, but know it in practice. All of us need from time to time to exercise both intellectual and physiological restraint in our bodies or our minds. Otherwise we will be more easily confused by both end arguments, The testimony of a resilient argument is one that produces a peaceful and productive lifestyle long term- not achieved as should be obvious to anyone who dares switch the media off ( a great idea) The media flag is everchanging -- is it not ? new products new solutions.
The reason there is so much comfort talk in September 2025 of being "in the centre" is simply because most of our citizens don't know where the centre of balance really is. The fearful know that being" in the centre" is safe so they love talk like that, but because they don't really know where the centre is ( the science is extremely complex) It doesn't seem to matter to many that the calm talk of us changing the atmosphere puts them out near Mars ---The idea that the Nero Zero ship is taking us somewhere gives them hope in some progress ; that MR and MRS CALM are taking us somewhere at least is seen by many as better than the Libs who appear to be not moving.
Chesterton would IMO , if he were alive. be telling the Parties, not which flag will win, but which flag and which ship will fall first. His "Flag of the World" is helpful here lhttp://ondewolf.blogspot.com

You can't trust anybody

, .....especially all those fanatics still clambering for attention.
Both old and new media ALL report on rumor 


Real news doesn't always matter .
Especially in 2024 when every source is clambering to gain and keep an audience. 

When  someone  spreads a rumor about someone in the congregation  who is not listening to "immanent danger of hell warnings" it simply doesn't matter that its old news , it news because it is a moral failure ( or appears to be for those in church at the time ) . How convenient for those who ignore the 8th commandment  that people sin daily- so  technically " another sin another day is news".

Todays news from SPENDER was that "renewables are the cheapest form of energy " Its a headline that cannot be justified , but it makes headine news in THE GUARDIAN . 

As Douglas Murray , a reporter on the media says so well ,  old and new media ALL report on rumor SO it becomes news . Good journos will say the economics of renewables is NOT NEWS ( its digestable knowledge ) but it doesn't matter.  Competency and truth go out the door if you allow the devil ( and all his false witnesses ) in. 

YOU  CANT TRUST ANYBODY when there are so many HIGH MORAL SIGNAL voices clambering for attention, and noone is listening to the 8th Commandment which kept the problem in check for a few centuries.
The noise will get louder NOW because half the country ( it seems just at the moment) see doing something about CC as a moral imperative.  All moral impertaives are now seen to be ' good "-- the only good? 
The fact that renewables are NOT doing it, now or ever ,  is far less important to the high priests club  than getting its pew sitters  to keep heeding the sermon and revoting in the priests in again for next week

More quickfix madness from those who are desperately failing to use our money well .

  Rob Sitch is at pains  IN UTOPIA  ABC  to remind the twits in charge of our Building Australia that they are so cringeworthy they think consultants will provide answers to  complex planning issues.

The public service used to exist to provide capable dependable reliable advice ( that is judging the consultants not the other way around ) for all the people . Now its a free for all ; nimbys , foxes in charge of chicken coupes and  long  waits to delight those who now get a free feed form the public purse  because they know  more abou  the passing  prey  than our innocent of evil polys . 

See the mess and evil  that Wyatt and Western Australia are creating by trying to control producers using consultants- people whose qualifications to control must always be able to be questioned by the public justice system. , 

this time around its aboriginal heritage areas "  Well trained inhouse agents in regional area would not only be a lot cheaper but have the big advantage of being credible and decisive without all the reams of paperwork  . 

How did we become victims of the new wolves of minority interests ? 

" The threat to sound decision making from unstable coalitions involving ignorant and inexperienced lobbyists is now a worldwide concern in the West .

Prominent British intellectual AC Grayling describes very well in two recent books ( "Democracy in Crisis" and "The Good State ") how many Western Governments are making quick fix decisions that don't work. He makes the point by just describing : "The Brexit / Boris mistake" (driven sadly by a referendum that went wrong ) and the unstable Trump/ Democrats means of not making decisions that finally make sense to the people.

Most of my clients in the bush have given up on the ruling parties years ago . We need our young , less worn out people to represent them and sound science in practice as they have already done with showing the way in egg and Australian produce marketing choices .- broadening the economics/ ecological principles debate. Thankfully not all our young people take the simple Marxist line . See UTOPIA ABC this week .

Most farmers and producers of this country usually don't have the energy for email and the internet; they too are without a VOICE .@Representing South West Victoria

Evil lurks within and without and giving dominion to one leader in our Country is not easy

 It has to be said that going Independant is a bit of a fad and there is every chance ( we should all be intelligent gamblers or cynics or both?) that most of the current crop are ,if not me generation" my way of the highway" types,

will  turn out to be ONE HIT WONDERS.Are they real team players or snake oil salemen ?

This foray may not be all good for Australia because desperation breeds http://quickfiz.blogspot.com and we need polys with staying power.

Independent candidates often appeal to people because they offer " the new " and seem progressive. not burdened by " the past" and the staid old stuff.  Fair enough-- that's me and most rural people everywhere .

While I will still make the difficult decision to support conservatives and team players, a good friend Augusto Zimmermann has just released a book on Scomo pointing out that he and many others in Parliament are living on the unsustainable whiff of appearing strong ( when we are surrounded by weakness woosy and soft -- the puppets in charge of parties for eg)
Think of ALL THE PREMIERS who wouldn't be in power if they weren't focused on pretending to be TOUGH ( say on lung infections ) - who now insist on mandating what makes no sense.

My point -- don't end up with puppets in charge because those who act strong and tough but aren't, will fall .The independent can be the tyrant who hasn't got the team spirit.   Aim for long term gain by rejecting the short term gain spinners everytime   

The country needs the objectivity of its most productive and competitive 

Careless Noise makers can get people to get killed . Ditch them

The rain along the east coast is not unusual, but the runoff is. 
Because rain is part of climate , ignorant climate activists open their big mouths and misdirect resources concern and cynicism .

 

In investigating the huge damage to houses in the  Barwon river floodplain in November 1995  , I was surprised to learn that neither the Engineers Australia  guidelines for runoff estimates  or the Met Bureau records were of any use in really understanding the ongoing very high risk of bigger than expected floods from some mountain areas , especially when moist easterlies were operating  .
To put it simply,  the modelling is not dynamic enough to pick upon the many site specific factors  ( like  orography ,soil erosion and bedload  )  that cause these unusually large amounts of water and silt rising out of channels .  .

The failure of planning authorities to anticipate a very high level of risk  is evident in the sloppy way these floods are reported and NOT anticipated when moist easterlies are active . (ongoing exposure near the Brisbane river locals  as a result of constant rain near Toowoomba.
ttp://designwithnature.blogspot.com/2013/01/the-biggest-threat-ever.html

The best way to picture the risk is to remember the limited ability of most clouds to produce more than an inch or two of water and the cooling effect  required to get even that amount . What happens  in these rare but quite predictable occasions is that the rising hills  provide the orographic cooling effect  required to et a train  of clouds to give up their moisture on one locality for many hours on end.
2 inch per hour in one spot  becomes 20 inches in one spot and no soil can take it as we can see ( if we have eyes to see ) in the water .We can even see a bit about "whose soil where" by the color 

.  


If we allow ignorant wannabes to continue to blame everything on climate change,  there will be deaths and destruction because of them because they redirect support away from the real consequences of real environmental risks  we should be facing . 

The failure of planning authorities to anticipate a very high level of risk  is evident in the sloppy way these floods are reported and NOT anticipated when moist easterlies are active . (ongoing exposure near the Brisbane river locals  as a result of constant rain near Toowoomba.)

The best way to picture the risk is to remember the limited ability of most clouds to produce more than an inch or two of water and the cooling effect  required to get even that amount . What happens  in these rare but quite predictable occasions is that the rising hills  provide the orographic cooling effect  required to et a train  of clouds to give up their moisture on one locality for many hours on end. 


If we allow ignorant wannabes to continue to blame everything on climate change,  there will be deaths and destruction because of them because they redirect support away from the real consequences of real environmental risks  we should be facing .