On recurring bouts of panic

Its 17th March 2020 here in Victoria Australia .  Supermarket shelves everywhere in every town are being stripped bare. Last week it was just toilet paper oats and rice you couldn't get but this week you will struggle to get meat and frozen goods . The shelves are bare with people every where . The accepted practice of self isolation by choice has become  mandatory with large events being cancelled like the place is going into lock down . groups of over 500 were banned. today groups of over 100 are banned . The threat is a new version of  a coronavirus

I am not a panic merchant and hopefully weigh up risk well in my areas of ecosystem stress. With the current threat from a new virus I expect the time for self isolation will soon pass - as most people become exposed to it personally .This does not mean there is not irrational level of panic about ( see below)
 My advice is that but we all must take the best medical advice even if we have our doubts ( as they do ) about whether we can prevent deaths from it easily. and by intervention and change of normal habits .
As with all risk ,we should not invent , as the potential non objective   threatened  participants,  our own concerns ( eg need to test ourselves with expensive agents ) . We do not need to , as usual avoid taking up the time  management need to keep discussing and consulting for possible practical and achievable  choice constraints. Those delegated to provide authority on these matters.( observers)need time and respect.
  Risk as the former posts speak,  requires rapid but timely site and time specific consideration and audience panic will not help governments do that in the limited time available .What size hammer isn't always the issue if we think  hammers ? we can do more damage than good . Its not only technique and changing daily technique but the likely Cost benefit of EACH vaguely relevant action.


BACKGROUND     "No time for panic"  A paper

I have been preparing since before Christmas Nov 2019 a paper for a science conference ( ISCAST.org ) on the subject of why people are in such a panic about environmental risk  issues .
The subject of the paper is on unreasonable food ,fire and water worries.


The positive thing is if the right people use the right tools we can avoid the sustainability that has so plagued our past .
The late entry of the coronavirus in autumn 2020 came as a  complete surprise because my issues are water soil food and fire worries . see the brief here .
While I did a top microbiology  course at Uni and have studied soil ever since i don't feel qualified to predict the outcome of complex disease questions best left to others.
However as an competent environmental risk assessor as well,  its clear that the some reactions are more in panic than in substance. The right hammer in the right place should be left to those who listen closely to show themselves approved .
We know progress and seriousness of the disease can be expected to be clearer in a few months time when it has spread more widely around the world, The Prime Minster has,  it seems, as we all should ,  taken the Chief Medical Officers advice ( as as he take advice) and set the cautionary period of six months .( at the outside ?) While there is clearly lots more panic than is justified , sound risk management means we wait on the best medical advice . It will not surprise me if the widespread presence of the disease amongst humans in a few months time means that like will go back to normal .Will that knowledge at least , we can postpone some events.

I hope that we do not go back to the unconvincing idea of sterilizing all substrates (like our hands )
There is still a lot of misinformation about , especially amongst those who assume authority ( the managements classes and wannabes )  see note below

I did micro at uni over 50 yrs ago and studied/speculated it in soils and substrates weekly ever since.
IMO The basic vulnerabilities and functions of viruses are known but its the ecological associations ( just as in my work) that are probably not . We were taught very clearly over 50 years ago with the "Eastern" focus on results”( technology eg Japan ) that basic scientific research would suffer . Its certainly true of research in my area of ecological risk assessment and prosecution. Perhaps you can tell me -Who is doing primary research on microbiological ecology ?

Take  the out of hand panic about hand washing -hand sanitizes

Hand sanitizes 
60% alcohol,  if you use it on your hands all the time will take away much of the oil and colonies that normally live on your skin. You  are best to keep your hands clean but don't keep offering new tenants a place at your house by killing off the old ones .
Your hands are what is known in biochemistry as a substrate
If you want to be ahead of the game take the ecologists point of view  http://ecomia.blogspot.com