Catastrophes occur because people believe half baked crap

Some examples 














Background . There are always things we don't know in the precipitation of a man made disaster,  but the evidence is that ,what was obvious to a few, or very few ,wasn't effectively communicated to those who could have done something to prevent it. 

The occasions when no one saw the risk are  rare and not the focus here.
The terrible truth is that  there are often many ways on the road to catastrophe to prevent it,  which makes the noise from constant general talk of catastrophe just another example of careless crap .


The other terrible truth is that not many of us are good listeners - especially when it comes our objectivity about a bigger picture. about the truth others may have ( Peterson's rule 9)

Take this claim from the  climate catastrophians that "the end of the world is nigh " ,Why aren't many of  us NOT listening to them? 
I heard someone say on the sacred ABC  that 100% of scientists agree with him  , but  that's a lie.  Noone should follow a liar or treat the ABC staff as knowing what we need to know-- most are not anywhere near practicing scientists .A deep trust in what ALL scientists think is not very deep because scientists dont always agree - esp on implications of their knowledge.
I hate it that my profession is implicated but not properly involved (say debate), but you should know we scientists get ignored too- whatever we truly know!--

We are not listening to the  catastrophians too because we don't really know where the climate catastrophe persons want us to run to? If such people want to be listened (and not further condemned ) they must  succinctly save time and spell out the road to avoidance. No more burning of any kind ?, Sequestration of a truly substantive kind? 
With volcanoes and landslides,it helps if a local scientist is on the ground , You the reader need to know there are none-NOW - there used to be before , TODAY you NOW get a noise on your phone or on radio . ring 000 what a huge waste of money is spent by state governments  trying to act like parents to us !  "I will tell you when your life is at risk " --they say .You would be mad to trust them  

It is the very crime of the catastrophians that they misuse hearing time  by not being specific .
Is it the crime of our very own broadcaster that they are quite subtle and sly  in refusing to let a variety of voices ( close to action ) be heard on the subject /their subject choice .( thankfully One 2 One and other programs like Arndo is changing things)
 Real risk reduction always requires  specific recognition of cocontentating forces. This is of course is the annoying truth -you have to listen to the long winded way of all scientists and observers in practice-to see when the planets collide --- too bad there are no short cuts,, and crying wolf kills  )
The crime of the catastrophians is that they waste time talking about risk in ways which do not really address it . 
The important  but differing roles of the student , the participant and the observer ( very important subject noted here with S , O ' and P's below ) is not the main focus here.

The very human reasons why proper communication did not occur,  as with the fable, is the focus here.,  I have had the privilege of being both S, P and O as a geoscientist working in rural areas.

These deep historic and ongoing realities in men's failure to really listen to each other MUST be taken as critical if we are to avoid both small and large disasters. Excuse making we can't stop, but by being alert and not alarmed ,we can avoid more disasters.  

The Aberfan tragedy 1966  
The risk of a pile of excavated fill going thixotrophic when saturated would have been observed by many people in most moist towns across the country. You don't have to be an expert to notice ( S+O) important things-- to be a good observer (O)  ,

Geoscientists know the risk of landslide to be very high  and the risk of slurry slide to come with momentum energy that would be developed by its height in the landscape ( the situation at Aberfan) . Sitting high above a city,  its hard not to think slurry and landslide at some point. Why the blindness? (B)
 While one might have expected the local geotechnical engineers (S) to have at one moment noticed the probable structural  failure of fill outside,  their daily focus  was quite normally  on structural failure inside the mine ( where lives were also at risk of being lost ) ,

A key risk  for any of us is that we can be so close to something  ( a good thing and the best thing )  (P) is we can't see it (S)   We need to listen to each other to live well .
 Prosecution of sound risk management usually requires at least TWO parties( eg P+O) to talk to each other. 
We don't know who didn't talk to who,  but we do know that as usually happens with HBC-- the obvious is touted as  cause  when in reality risk will usually run deeper. The creek was a focus for some but the low factor of safety was all that mattered . We know the very high rainfall of the time was blamed by management but those of who study the substance know that all sort of  secondary is normally highly distractionary.
Yes  for eg rainfall is a cause but,,,,,,,,,

If you cut no deeper  that the risk of bush fire being increased by higher than normal temperatures (TODAY- drafted in November)  you will probably be not advancing the cause of prevention protection and real wisdom about risk.

If you talk when someone else should be talking , you risk being the problem. 

GPS on our phones should be used as a way of alerting people to risks. 

You heard it first from Emperors Academy
Don' t forget to never leave technology in the hands of wannabes , Give it over to professional scientists ( and geoscientists in particular )

Situation normal

When the children insist they know things , wise adults stop talking . Pity about the not so wise!



THIS Aesops fable provides us with a quick link to reality and the poor ways we often deal with risks. Effective risk advice is about timing specifics , so many wannabes are out of order by always talking about it .

The problem of cry wolf  is particularly acute in our age because less and less people have daily jobs ( like farming or working in the environment) which expose them daily to risk .
But that's by no means  all
The stupidity didn't start yesterday and the children problem has always been with us .

What many ageing and inexperienced Western reactionaries  don't realize is that they have fallen for excuses for our behavior  ( nature does not dismiss nurture)  and accepted the bad and immature practices of childhood.  Petersons rule no 9
So the problem of panic talk is particularly acute in our age because we as a culture do not respect the authorship and calming influence of the whole truth that comes with study and experience -- Find and talk to the really busy people who know the area- if you have time .

Our homes are bombarded with noise and worry. Best to switch off the TV at least .
I'll leave it to you when you switch off the children


He --who like to  thinks he knows more about the outside world  "Did you hear the weather report for tomorrow Darling ?" 
 She ..who just lets him think things,  but feeds him facts   "Apparently there is a 95% chance that the media will find a new catastrophe to talk about tomorrow."

He   "Whats for lunch ? "

Some other time we will continue the conversation about who knows more about what! The conversation is not always nice , because we will challenge each other , but very healthy
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1SziWxOYTcDY3YHy9wnpR59aBstzXIYm6Lk2_8lr8TcM/edit?usp=sharing


Meanwhile , I suggest we all go to confession


https://docs.google.com/document/d/1zRE_Bn-V8LuLhUQI4KIwoM4X5d0ToZHEh_EK-TbuXzg/edit?usp=sharing

Adapted from the confession used in Christian meetings worldwide for centuries .

Conflating the Conflagration

Last weeks media madness will go down in history as the last ditch effort of the worry warriors to try and make a case for a future holocaust - and incendiary end to life on earth as we know it .
"The bush fires are worse than ever ever before " .
Its not been enough to state science science science, the  arrogant unqualified now break the fundamental rules in science  . The ABC and many others have to promote a future hell on earth by joining the dots in a way which offends anyone with half a brain , "The bush fires are worse than ever ever before " .
The Australian  newspaper was the only one to state the crap production in the media ; the real news about all the fake news

The poor old Age has forgotten what it is to report anything that isn't PC .Like so many desperate to avoid denying the failure of the progressive faith , they waste hours filtering facts to suit their theories.
.Does The Age  remember we stopped reading it years ago ? . They remember how the Argus went under . An unrepentant  subtle sly and bloody approach to the house on the hill won't save them from final judgement .

In a paradox of profound proportions these blinkered minds are out doing old Hanrahan. At least he was in the ball park ..

Meanwhile the real dystopian elements undermining the West go undiscussed -- except maybe at church before the normal speculation outside afterwards.  Speculation is in the right order in such places .

The fanaticism of wolf risk worrying is all around us

Examples
1.  Feminists on Q andA last night .Nov 4th2019   The modern woman who wants sexual freedom finds the man who takes the same licence to be bad company . What does she expect ? Reject traditional marriage with its paradoxical but workable  tensions in honor, leadership and servanthood and this is what you get.    Its abused by men especially  tis true,  but not by all men .  The wolf is not visiting every house in teh street ; God knows why soem are leaving teh door open for him.
2. The risks of environmental damage are real , but if you don' t study the world , you don't realize that not all man does is bad ( new doctrines of misanthropy )
If you study the stuff of life you get to realize  that resilience is real and  provides real reasons when not to worry ; when to cut cull and carry and repair . https://docs.google.com/document/d/1AJI5nO4FipVQajqtnJm91NbQLh-axceVUpcu3qgHk-4/edit?usp=sharing

When do you ever learn something watching the ABC on environmental affairs ?

The ABC are not fear mongers you might say !
 On the surface i think you would be right,  because they go to a  lot of trouble to not look like they are.
Which means,  if it is true, thinking audiences need to dig deeper.
One of the reasons I don't learn much from watching the ABC is because they are so cynical.
Another reason I don't learn from them is that they don't employ  practical scientist who can answer tough questions. Kruzelnitsky and Sampson love making points of theory , for example hoping the audience will be impressed , Most of us expect probability statements on real risks .
Clearly many in the ABC audience do not see the problem I have --- until you put the question above and the failures below ( just examples ) or mention Political correctness

https://hanrahan.blogspot.com/2019/10/hope-in-all-dust.html

ABC journos do have reason to worry  ( on the  reporting of environmental risk in particular )

1. The Science Show has been run for decades by a non scientist ,
2. Some of the lack of controversy ( should be normal) is due to tokenistic, quickgrabs and ignorance the subject matter  ( the other side of the story- esp political )
3.  Major political blunders on environment have occurred on their watch WITHOUT any  apology about the fact that they ignored warnings from competent experts, Who were they listening to ??? Politicians ????
   --1   State attempts to create water
   --2   An 18 billion MD plan that isn't working-
   --3  Rural people switching off ABC and watching SKY
   --4 Many bushfire imperatives from RC's have not been adopted
   
   3  They continue to expect us to believe polys and media people know things on the above eco and env subjects ..    They read "Scoop"  but never got it
   
   
   THIS  WEEK
4. PIDDLING into the Barham . The redgums need a real big flood to set new trees growing in sustainable sites ( not salty ones !!)  http://cuttingedgecare.blogspot.com
5. SEAL explosion  ( landline )   I mean even  today noone has twigged that the devastation that the seals have done in Lake Alexandrena is related to stupidly simple ideologues like  Burke and Wong putting precious water into a semi saline pond  in the gospel name of "environmental flow."    The MD plan is NO plan is it doesn't cover "predictable events "

Worry warriors out of their tree over the reef

The worry warriors are fearful of reef damage from polluted runoff from land 
Lesson 1  Don't  listen to people quoting scientists ( people will quote those who agree with them) ; listen to scientists themselves .If you are not a scientist you will often need to LISTEN long to a range of them because on these complex questions , they don't always agree and it takes years to gain competency over the ecosystems ( cf plant or animal ) involved .
What many citizens do not know too is that much so called independent science research on environment has been captured by the politically correct . eg the cuddly stuff . You will read here about soil -- where are the soil scientists in YOUR state Utopia group ? 
 Should you trust someone whose just outta school ?(
Should you trust those who claim to know all the important things cause their facts are at their fingertips on a computer playing  with atmospheric physics modelling and because they are paid specifically to come up with more worries re climate ? 

Lesson 2  The solution to pollution is often dilution . Make up you own minds and study the flocculation after events . 
Lesson  3   Watch Utopia . People trying to do/help  the experts  do his/her job is driving the experts and honest brokers mad 
 
Whose a good scientists  to trust? One who admits he often knows more and more about less and less  

THE REEF  ( Great barrier reef Australia in particular)  Note nearshore ( discussed here ) can be different from wavecut platforms  etc 
The reef like any ecosystem is a complex but resilient beast , Like all ecosystems it requires a number of scientists to understand  the actual boundaries of each animal or plants, resilience and how it works both individually and together; the stresses in lifecycle year, season and circumstance are full of variables. 

WHAT WE DO KNOW   about near shore effects from streams .

1. Water bodies are usually  precariously infertile, That is , they struggle to maintain  nutrient recycling near the surface because gravity operates on both solids and solutes (the critical unseen particles )  
2. Life in water is dependant then on phases A- phases of growth and decline ; B phases of depletion and infertility ; C phases of dependency ( algae feeding fish bacteria protozoa zooplankton etc )  D phases of regeneration ( seeding spores and high substrate  availability - from another phase ; phases or death or threat ( wind and calm ) 
3.  Fresh water entering salt water can release large amounts of much needed food  but the various phases of growth and decline vary greatly with space and time , A turbid flood does not reduce light penetration in seawater for long as high salts flocculate the clays .( generally) 
4. In general and in the big picture,   the reefs can benefit greatly  from highly nutrient rich  from land  runoff. They after all often running near empty on some equations of productivity and growth . 
5. While soil could impact negatively on the growth of algae and various other species,  the soil particles do not remain suspended for long and their attendant cation site attachments are welcome with little likelihood of deep deposits on reefs 
6. Do not panic . even the most turbid water coming from land is soon  flocculated in sea water .
   
   Take the fake news off the news please   we don't watch the ABC much now anyways as they employ few practical scientists and follow the weight of the political moment in the direction of  ignorant fear mongers and cynics. 

read  Douglas Murray in "The madness of crowds" )

Utopia

Good art is often confrontational. It puts the current deep dilemmas in a frame;  but it doesn't often do it nicely. When the powerful get fanatical they feel it face on, full on .

So why is there so little confrontational art around? ( working dog's UTOPIA , and MAD as HELL come later )
--The ABC would rather produce comedy and there is a case with their new domestic dramas that the --ABC have completely confused the road to fun serious domestic . Either way ABC Art is not cutting it
--The ABC do too much navel gazing in their own contexts ( mechanistic rather than artistic paradoxically) as GKC put it , the real anarchists are offsite .

 Art  does cut  more truthfully and directly  than this slow burn cynical nonsense  of rationally driven action; where  "my idea is always the best "
Art does this in a way that mere description ( the myth that sub scientists often adopt as gospel) cannot.

Powerful people (eg media and politics  ) can't usually hack this sort of art in their direction  because their world view is the present and the current action agenda is their own .
Art will tell our mothers fathers and leaders that their unrepentant blindness is driving us  who know things all to despair and suicide ,
Art,  at its best , puts the frightening human condition ( denial arrogance hypocrisy)of all .. to the test  Those who hide behind talk of being most rational are currently most exposed .

DYSTOPIA
Good art for example on climate concerns would remind us  that some thing is still missing from the self evidently super rational picture presented by the now fanatical powerful worry warriors.

Despite over ten years of fact,after fact , no amount of facts stacks up because the facts are self select . Only this week we have the ABC reporting the pre Archimedes nonsense that icebergs,  when the melt , will raise the sea level . In water they are already displacing the  water   



Good art on climate change will probably bring the  house down with just  one well put  laugh on the above programs . Poor art and politics is humorless .Its like living in 1984. no this , no that and only chocolate when you are good .



UTOPIA
While many of us who lost our  opportunity to effect sound public service because of the quick fix politics of the media and politicians love Utopia , WE find it hard to watch the isolated sense makers like Rob and Celia get screwed - week after week. ( as happened to us ) whats needed to break the spell may not be nice, but we know its coming .
Our children can't afford to have the country being run by technological fix agents ( Ellul) , posies corrupted by collective incompetence that results from not weeding out unsound logic . the logic that increases the number of complicit consultants and public servants and alienates those who know better , I have written to Ida to ask her to get Arhn do ( or others ) to paint the picture of some of our lost and now largely silent  prophets.
Real dilemmas in art are good,  but sometimes not as effective in making us see solutions an seeing people amid their mistakes .

I love it how they get Celia to ask -- " talk to the future"  (or are they just afraid to ?) some of us are always talking to a better future by simply  confronting the reality of the unweeded garden. 



SOME GOOD STUFF ON THE ABC   this will come as a surprise to some no doubt who know I don't bother ( mostly) watching their selection of news and excessive commentary on it (  I used to) . 

HARD QUIZ  This show is not perfect  but I do love the way Tom Gleeson demonstrates a fair way forward in this mad pedantic world of the internet where personal confrontations are now forbitten by many. 
The way forward for the West is the same way it has always been .
As long as the issue is about your ideas and the conversation is an open face to face one then I am all for risking it.  Anger,  hostility and deprecation are plainly dangerous but somehow that forum is OK for all is forgiven because it is finally out in the open ??  Its  a open court in the great Western tradition . 
  Despite all the indulgent swearing and the shallowness of the content , Hard Quiz is still one of the most entertaining  and useful models of sound and sustainable values going at the moment .Everyone gets to be heard and if the comments are careless,  there is a chance for them to be corrected.