On the correct use of the precautionary principle

There is something new under the sun

The meddling management culture .

The proper use of the precautionary principle ( which the aforementioned grab from the workers tool bag as if they know how to use it) means

WE the public  have to 

STOP management culture operatives from trying to apply the tool they can be expected to be incompetent in using 

 SUMMARY

The ONLY people who should be allowed to pronounce actions ( moment by moment as risk wanes and changes) are those professionals who study and take advice on the risks. let me call that person the CMO  Chief Message Officer .

Everyone below him will have an opinion,  but those below job is not to spread the virus of half baked , but make sure the top of the line knows about all probabilities so he/she can weigh them up  . .

By way of introduction We risk assessors have seen it all before in risks of all kinds - no need to panic .

1. TIME related talks 
Because risk is a time related function we the public must save time; use it well and differently -and expect some relief from the stress with time .  if "stages" are mentioned that can help us manage the time .

1. Save the CMO  time means that the CMO person can be clear and confident to an audience who in their impatience have to WAIT respectfully and quietly for word from the top .
2. 2. Of short duration Confusion in audience is avoided bu being clear and concise - even if advice is not complete or perfect advice 
3. The people ho wait can expect to be told how long? .  People can,  if they are patient,  then can expect to have the CMO lower the time of stress .the CMO if he is wise will set a high outside  limit for waits so he has room to reduce them.
4. The audience can expect that if the CMO states a time of crisis it can be expected that the time of waiting will be reduced with time . While such advice does not solve all the audiences challenges,  it is GOOD and sound advice ; it shares the risk and uncertainty with people to decide on their  own circumstances. its consistent advice . 

 For example the passage of a disease or a rainfall event while originally set  over a long period  "can be expected" ( this is how we talk probability ) can be set for a shorter period over the real risk period . While the waiting annoys a generation  now used to instant gratification,  they should be counseled in five  matters

1. There will be a waiting period which will end . Be patient , the real risk will decrease with time . 
2. It is to be expected that the longer the real threat lasts,  the less the waiting time till a resolution. However bad the results are ( we are not god is the CMO's job - quite a contrast to some wannabes ideas .  
3. Appropriate Risk words and ideas need to be learnt and used well by all exposed - a lot of these ideas  are  new  to some . eg  disease contracted does not mean death . most people will eventually be exposed internally ( via lungs most likely)
   Appropriate risk ideas with a virus
   CLEAR CONSISTENT"some must self isolate and all must social distance "CMO words    " 
   
   TESTING
   Do not ask for tests .Testing won't always be cost effective for control because ts expensive and not direct ;symptoms may not show progress of disease
   CASES  can be misleading - the virus can be expected to be in most people with time via the lungs.
   POSTPONE  you can expect the risk with time . listen for estimates and revised estimates of that time 
4. Wannabes will write their own scripts - do not listen to them;  they maybe conscious or unconscious fear mongers . Wannabes love to fill the gap of the unknown with information . 
5. Real protection comes if you only listen to the CMO - you personally are not familiar with the risk because they are new  ( like a risk manage is ) let that experience work for you by listening only for him,. 

See also the god assumption on modern western culture and the fear and denial of death .What this means in practice is that as the West has rejected its trust in God , our leaders expect to play God resulting in unreal expectations of  not only heaven on earth  but eternal life here ( denial of the place of death in life and nature), 


This post is based on my experience in risk assessment and should not be used as a reason to ignore the current risks from coronavirus. We are IMO all obliged to take the Chief Medical Officers advice  and only that . This has been , and always will be,  the best advice for the public .

Let the expert be the ONLY person who uses the precautionary principle .
Wannabes .managers and polys must refrain from speculation at times of real risk,  less they heighten the panic (and reduce the collection of sound cost benefit advice ) . .

I feel obliged to write this short note because the  truths of abuse are well known

and important for any future risk discussion so that , we the people, understand and  limit unnecessary and ineffective panic actions by public authority figures . Time to button one's lip and listen .

The uncomfortable truth is that politicians and wannabes are prone to misusing the precautionary principle simply because its not their money they are spending and because they now see their job as preventing risk  to individuals , when no one can really do that properly 

Properly doing risk assessment means properly doing costing of options and the tough scientific connections .

There is then. in the post modern world , a bit of the god assumption hidden in the predictable action to just keep spending by the modern management class  ,

This is seen in the focus on pretending deaths( which we can do )but not very easily and not without the cost benefit that an advised CMO will take.It also seen in the public confusion about what having the virus in your body means ( it does not mean death and it can be expected that most people will be exposed to it at some point in the near future and develop some immunity to it .

Real world risk assessors know that all risk management is a cost benefit exercise .Many postmodern managers do not know this - this is  partly because the only people who understand risk are professional observers and they have a fixed processes that they will follow .
All I wanted to do today ( 22nd March 2020) is note what has to be a lot of overreaction at many levels .
Let me just state it simply
Real world Risk assessors do use the precautionary principle but they don't use it in isolation from a closer look at the range of real risks - which is what mono cultural managers of issues do.

Why mention the adverse effect of management culture ?
Simply because it can be and often is a costly adverse
and ineffective action.  They should not for example be allowed to exaggerate the risk of death ( the avoidance  factor )or maintain ignorant confusion but get the CMO to make that matter clear .

Summary   LISTEN and know who to listen to. 

Most management class people side on the side of caution when they don't really know enough to say anything . In the internet age, everyone has an opinion so as a combined group they can ensure the majority rule. this is NOT GOOD because  the majority do not KNOW enough to really KNOW .

Its the CMO's job too to listen and advise alone on that basis . 

On recurring bouts of panic

Its 17th March 2020 here in Victoria Australia .  Supermarket shelves everywhere in every town are being stripped bare. Last week it was just toilet paper oats and rice you couldn't get but this week you will struggle to get meat and frozen goods . The shelves are bare with people every where . The accepted practice of self isolation by choice has become  mandatory with large events being cancelled like the place is going into lock down . groups of over 500 were banned. today groups of over 100 are banned . The threat is a new version of  a coronavirus

I am not a panic merchant and hopefully weigh up risk well in my areas of ecosystem stress. With the current threat from a new virus I expect the time for self isolation will soon pass - as most people become exposed to it personally .This does not mean there is not irrational level of panic about ( see below)
 My advice is that but we all must take the best medical advice even if we have our doubts ( as they do ) about whether we can prevent deaths from it easily. and by intervention and change of normal habits .
As with all risk ,we should not invent , as the potential non objective   threatened  participants,  our own concerns ( eg need to test ourselves with expensive agents ) . We do not need to , as usual avoid taking up the time  management need to keep discussing and consulting for possible practical and achievable  choice constraints. Those delegated to provide authority on these matters.( observers)need time and respect.
  Risk as the former posts speak,  requires rapid but timely site and time specific consideration and audience panic will not help governments do that in the limited time available .What size hammer isn't always the issue if we think  hammers ? we can do more damage than good . Its not only technique and changing daily technique but the likely Cost benefit of EACH vaguely relevant action.


BACKGROUND     "No time for panic"  A paper

I have been preparing since before Christmas Nov 2019 a paper for a science conference ( ISCAST.org ) on the subject of why people are in such a panic about environmental risk  issues .
The subject of the paper is on unreasonable food ,fire and water worries.


The positive thing is if the right people use the right tools we can avoid the sustainability that has so plagued our past .
The late entry of the coronavirus in autumn 2020 came as a  complete surprise because my issues are water soil food and fire worries . see the brief here .
While I did a top microbiology  course at Uni and have studied soil ever since i don't feel qualified to predict the outcome of complex disease questions best left to others.
However as an competent environmental risk assessor as well,  its clear that the some reactions are more in panic than in substance. The right hammer in the right place should be left to those who listen closely to show themselves approved .
We know progress and seriousness of the disease can be expected to be clearer in a few months time when it has spread more widely around the world, The Prime Minster has,  it seems, as we all should ,  taken the Chief Medical Officers advice ( as as he take advice) and set the cautionary period of six months .( at the outside ?) While there is clearly lots more panic than is justified , sound risk management means we wait on the best medical advice . It will not surprise me if the widespread presence of the disease amongst humans in a few months time means that like will go back to normal .Will that knowledge at least , we can postpone some events.

I hope that we do not go back to the unconvincing idea of sterilizing all substrates (like our hands )
There is still a lot of misinformation about , especially amongst those who assume authority ( the managements classes and wannabes )  see note below

I did micro at uni over 50 yrs ago and studied/speculated it in soils and substrates weekly ever since.
IMO The basic vulnerabilities and functions of viruses are known but its the ecological associations ( just as in my work) that are probably not . We were taught very clearly over 50 years ago with the "Eastern" focus on results”( technology eg Japan ) that basic scientific research would suffer . Its certainly true of research in my area of ecological risk assessment and prosecution. Perhaps you can tell me -Who is doing primary research on microbiological ecology ?

Take  the out of hand panic about hand washing -hand sanitizes

Hand sanitizes 
60% alcohol,  if you use it on your hands all the time will take away much of the oil and colonies that normally live on your skin. You  are best to keep your hands clean but don't keep offering new tenants a place at your house by killing off the old ones .
Your hands are what is known in biochemistry as a substrate
If you want to be ahead of the game take the ecologists point of view  http://ecomia.blogspot.com