It is apparently true that a 300 km fire front "could develop" but too easy to push the facts - unlikely according that such a front would happen . Impossible if you know the hills , the moisture content , the wind changes and the weather changes and night come on changes to limit combustion and edge and spot over requirement.
The service at least knows the limits imposed on any disaster by those complexities and certainties;The service is not in a panic . Yet they are reported ( sort of) to be !
The reason they should shut up and listen to the ordered evacuation and other info from controllers ( not there own reporters) is simply that emergencies like this require orderly evacuation by those who know both site variations ,timing and the many risk factors operating hour to hour, day to day .
If it was a fire in a theatre, the media could easily have instigated irrational action if not mass manic and more deaths than necessary.
The people most at risk are also those who chose not to protect themselves ,,so how can we help them . The reality is that people who show no common sense (Fire authorities call for 30 metre clearance around houses to protect them and have always done that )have to be dragged kicking and screaming directly - generalized messages only exaggerate the danger of cry wolf .
Emergency services are only needed rarely so its their interest to join the chorus of cry wolf and thereby reduce their overall effectiveness. Various state governments have fallen for this self seeking empire building nonsense before (eg The National Safety Authority). Regional service providers ( like the forest service ) who work in the forest know the risks and do not need to use the rare events and risks to join the chorus of those who claim " the biggest and worstest ever ". Rebuilt the forest and regional services sectors. Helicopters look good, but people are more effective and better value overall.---esp now that few of our citizens have any rel connection with the realities of the bush - a few objective observers on the ground can go a long way towards manageing the growing disease of panic .
ReplyDeleteEmergency services are only needed rarely so its their interest to join the chorus of cry wolf and thereby reduce their overall effectiveness. Various state governments have fallen for this self seeking empire building nonsense before (eg The National Safety Authority). Regional service providers ( like the forest service ) who work in the forest know the risks and do not need to use the rare events and risks to join the chorus of those who claim " the biggest and worstest ever ". Rebuilt the forest and regional services sectors. Helicopters look good, but people are more effective and better value overall.---esp now that few of our citizens have any rel connection with the realities of the bush - a few objective observers on the ground can go a long way towards manageing the growing disease of panic .
ReplyDeleteIn picture form notice--- the high humidity and the wind changes ie NORMAL
ReplyDelete